Post by Lebron23 on Apr 28, 2007 23:17:24 GMT -5
SENATE RACE STANDINGS: GO 5, IND. 1, TU 3;
3 GOs, 1 IND., 2 TUs CONTEND FOR LAST THREE SLOTS
Mahar Mangahas
Social Weather Stations
The PDI-SWS Election Survey of April 14-17 has five Genuine Opposition (GO), one Independent, and three Team Unity (TU) candidates in statistical position to take the top nine seats in the May Senatorial election. It has three GO, one Independent, and two TU candidates in statistical contention for the last three seats.
9 safe as of mid-April
The first four candidates are all from GO: 1. Loren Legarda, 58%; 2. Manuel "Manny" Villar, 45%; 3-4. Panfilo "Ping" Lacson and Francis "Chiz" Escudero, both 41%. Legarda and Villar were also 1st and 2nd in the PDI-SWS Election Survey of March 15-18, 2007, while Lacson and Escudero moved up from 4th and 5th respectively.
Now in 5th is Independent candidate Francis "Kiko" Pangilinan (39%), who was formerly in 3rd place.
Next is a batch of three TU candidates: 6. Ralph Recto (36%), 7. Edgardo Angara (35%), and 8. Joker Arroyo (32%), who improved respectively from 7th, 8th, and 10th a month ago.
Ninth is GO candidate Alan Peter Cayetano (31%), down from 6th place in March -- this counts for him all votes written simply 'Cayetano' without a first name, or assumes that Joselito Cayetano will be disqualified as a nuisance candidate.
Those in the top nine all have winning positions, as of mid-April, since they are statistically above 13th place.
6 contending for last 3 seats, as of mid-April
In contention for the last three seats are: 10. TU's Vicente "Tito" Sotto III (30%); 11-13. Independent candidate Gregorio "Gringo" Honasan, and GO's Aquilino "Koko" Pimentel III and Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III (28%); 14. TU's Juan Miguel "Migz" Zubiri (27%); and 15. GO's Sonia Roco (25%). (For a sample proportion of 28%, the error margin is 2-1/2 %, plus or minus.)
Compared to mid-March, Sotto improved from tied-12th, Honasan declined from 9th, Pimentel improved from 14th, Noynoy Aquino declined from tied-10th, Zubiri improved from 17th, and Roco improved from 16th.
Given the statistical ties, the winners as of mid-April could add at most two more GOs, at most one more Independent, and at most two more TUs, to the minimum GO-Ind-TU score of 5-1-3. As of mid-April, the range of possible scores is 7-2-3 (best for the opposition), 7-1-4, 6-2-4, 6-1-5, and 5-2-5 (best for the administration).
Uncertain factors: Joselito Cayetano and Theodore Aquino
The list of candidates used in the survey included both Joselito Cayetano (Kilusan Bagong Lipunan) and Theodore Aquino (Independent), in order to gauge the consequences of either or both of them being on the official list on election day.
As of now the official list includes both Alan Peter Cayetano and Joselito Cayetano, with footnotes stating that they are subject to pending disqualification cases. Our base analysis assumes that Joselito will be disqualified, as has been signaled by some elements in Comelec. It considers votes for Joselito Cayetano (8%) as stray votes, and assigns votes for 'Cayetano-unspecified' (7%) to Alan Cayetano.
If Comelec ultimately deems Joselito qualified, then his votes would no longer be stray, and the loss of the 'Cayetano-unspecified' votes would be a serious blow to the election chances of Alan Cayetano.
As of now the official list does not include Theodore Aquino, but SWS included it because Comelec Chairman Benjamin Abalos apparently promised in a speech to overseas Filipino voters that his qualification will be restored in time for the election. Our base analysis considers votes for Theodore Aquino (2%) as stray votes, and assigns votes for 'Aquino-unspecified' (4%) to Noynoy Aquino (not to Teresa Aquino-Oreta, because she is officially listed as Teresa A. Oreta).
If Comelec ultimately restores Theodore Aquino's qualification, then his votes would no longer be stray, and the loss of the 'Aquino-unspecified' votes would be a serious blow to the election chances of Noynoy Aquino.
Candidates statistically below No. 12
At least 4 points away from No. 15, and at least 7 points away from No. 12, are: 16-17. Cesar Montano (TU) and Michael Defensor (TU), 21%; 18-19. John Osmeña (GO) and Prospero Pichay (TU), 20%; and 20. Vicente Magsaysay (TU), 18%.
Compared to mid-March, Montano gained 2 ranks, Defensor lost 1, Osmeña lost 6, Pichay gained 2, and Magsaysay lost 2.
Likely voters
When asked if they would vote in the May election, 93% of the respondents said they would certainly do so, 5% said they would probably vote, 1% said they might be busy, and 1% said they would definitely not vote. Some promises to vote will probably not be kept since, according to Comelec (March 15, 2007), only 77% of registered voters actually voted in the 2004 election.
A tabulation of the SWS poll based only on respondents who said they would surely vote produced no change in the ranking of senatorial candidates.
Survey background
This special Pre-Election Survey was conducted over April 14-17, 2007, using face-to-face interviews of 1,200 registered voters divided into random samples of 300 each in the four areas of Metro Manila, the Balance of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao (sampling error margins of at most ±3% for national percentages). By design, the sample included every city/municipality in Metro Manila, and at least one province in every region in the other three areas. The Balance of Luzon has 6 regions, while Visayas has 3, and Mindanao has 6.
The Commission on Elections counts of Registered Voters, by region and area, newly released on March 15, 2007, were used to weight regional estimates to obtain area estimates, and to weight area estimates to obtain national estimates.
The SWS survey items on choice of candidates were not commissioned. Names of candidates de-listed by the Comelec were excluded in the April poll, except for Theodore Aquino, for reasons already stated.
#
The Philippine Daily Inquirer is the exclusive print partner of Social Weather Stations on its special series of monthly surveys tracking voter preference for the candidates for national positions in the May 14, 2007 election. Published results will be from the SWS March, April and May 2007 pre-election surveys.
3 GOs, 1 IND., 2 TUs CONTEND FOR LAST THREE SLOTS
Mahar Mangahas
Social Weather Stations
The PDI-SWS Election Survey of April 14-17 has five Genuine Opposition (GO), one Independent, and three Team Unity (TU) candidates in statistical position to take the top nine seats in the May Senatorial election. It has three GO, one Independent, and two TU candidates in statistical contention for the last three seats.
9 safe as of mid-April
The first four candidates are all from GO: 1. Loren Legarda, 58%; 2. Manuel "Manny" Villar, 45%; 3-4. Panfilo "Ping" Lacson and Francis "Chiz" Escudero, both 41%. Legarda and Villar were also 1st and 2nd in the PDI-SWS Election Survey of March 15-18, 2007, while Lacson and Escudero moved up from 4th and 5th respectively.
Now in 5th is Independent candidate Francis "Kiko" Pangilinan (39%), who was formerly in 3rd place.
Next is a batch of three TU candidates: 6. Ralph Recto (36%), 7. Edgardo Angara (35%), and 8. Joker Arroyo (32%), who improved respectively from 7th, 8th, and 10th a month ago.
Ninth is GO candidate Alan Peter Cayetano (31%), down from 6th place in March -- this counts for him all votes written simply 'Cayetano' without a first name, or assumes that Joselito Cayetano will be disqualified as a nuisance candidate.
Those in the top nine all have winning positions, as of mid-April, since they are statistically above 13th place.
6 contending for last 3 seats, as of mid-April
In contention for the last three seats are: 10. TU's Vicente "Tito" Sotto III (30%); 11-13. Independent candidate Gregorio "Gringo" Honasan, and GO's Aquilino "Koko" Pimentel III and Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III (28%); 14. TU's Juan Miguel "Migz" Zubiri (27%); and 15. GO's Sonia Roco (25%). (For a sample proportion of 28%, the error margin is 2-1/2 %, plus or minus.)
Compared to mid-March, Sotto improved from tied-12th, Honasan declined from 9th, Pimentel improved from 14th, Noynoy Aquino declined from tied-10th, Zubiri improved from 17th, and Roco improved from 16th.
Given the statistical ties, the winners as of mid-April could add at most two more GOs, at most one more Independent, and at most two more TUs, to the minimum GO-Ind-TU score of 5-1-3. As of mid-April, the range of possible scores is 7-2-3 (best for the opposition), 7-1-4, 6-2-4, 6-1-5, and 5-2-5 (best for the administration).
Uncertain factors: Joselito Cayetano and Theodore Aquino
The list of candidates used in the survey included both Joselito Cayetano (Kilusan Bagong Lipunan) and Theodore Aquino (Independent), in order to gauge the consequences of either or both of them being on the official list on election day.
As of now the official list includes both Alan Peter Cayetano and Joselito Cayetano, with footnotes stating that they are subject to pending disqualification cases. Our base analysis assumes that Joselito will be disqualified, as has been signaled by some elements in Comelec. It considers votes for Joselito Cayetano (8%) as stray votes, and assigns votes for 'Cayetano-unspecified' (7%) to Alan Cayetano.
If Comelec ultimately deems Joselito qualified, then his votes would no longer be stray, and the loss of the 'Cayetano-unspecified' votes would be a serious blow to the election chances of Alan Cayetano.
As of now the official list does not include Theodore Aquino, but SWS included it because Comelec Chairman Benjamin Abalos apparently promised in a speech to overseas Filipino voters that his qualification will be restored in time for the election. Our base analysis considers votes for Theodore Aquino (2%) as stray votes, and assigns votes for 'Aquino-unspecified' (4%) to Noynoy Aquino (not to Teresa Aquino-Oreta, because she is officially listed as Teresa A. Oreta).
If Comelec ultimately restores Theodore Aquino's qualification, then his votes would no longer be stray, and the loss of the 'Aquino-unspecified' votes would be a serious blow to the election chances of Noynoy Aquino.
Candidates statistically below No. 12
At least 4 points away from No. 15, and at least 7 points away from No. 12, are: 16-17. Cesar Montano (TU) and Michael Defensor (TU), 21%; 18-19. John Osmeña (GO) and Prospero Pichay (TU), 20%; and 20. Vicente Magsaysay (TU), 18%.
Compared to mid-March, Montano gained 2 ranks, Defensor lost 1, Osmeña lost 6, Pichay gained 2, and Magsaysay lost 2.
Likely voters
When asked if they would vote in the May election, 93% of the respondents said they would certainly do so, 5% said they would probably vote, 1% said they might be busy, and 1% said they would definitely not vote. Some promises to vote will probably not be kept since, according to Comelec (March 15, 2007), only 77% of registered voters actually voted in the 2004 election.
A tabulation of the SWS poll based only on respondents who said they would surely vote produced no change in the ranking of senatorial candidates.
Survey background
This special Pre-Election Survey was conducted over April 14-17, 2007, using face-to-face interviews of 1,200 registered voters divided into random samples of 300 each in the four areas of Metro Manila, the Balance of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao (sampling error margins of at most ±3% for national percentages). By design, the sample included every city/municipality in Metro Manila, and at least one province in every region in the other three areas. The Balance of Luzon has 6 regions, while Visayas has 3, and Mindanao has 6.
The Commission on Elections counts of Registered Voters, by region and area, newly released on March 15, 2007, were used to weight regional estimates to obtain area estimates, and to weight area estimates to obtain national estimates.
The SWS survey items on choice of candidates were not commissioned. Names of candidates de-listed by the Comelec were excluded in the April poll, except for Theodore Aquino, for reasons already stated.
#
The Philippine Daily Inquirer is the exclusive print partner of Social Weather Stations on its special series of monthly surveys tracking voter preference for the candidates for national positions in the May 14, 2007 election. Published results will be from the SWS March, April and May 2007 pre-election surveys.